By Juan Montoya
Remember the "Paul is Dead" hoax?
It was a hoax that started way back in 1966 and then gained traction in 1969. There were clues all over the music and album covers, the story goes.
The Abbey Road album had a photo of the Fab Four walking across the iconic street there is a Volkswagen Beetle with the license plate “LMW 28 IF" just behind McCartney.”
Paul would have been 28 when this album was released IF he was still alive, conspiracy theorists claimed.
This brought to mind some local claims that border on hoaxes locally. In Brownsville, economic development boosters have developed all kinds of claims that also seem to be based on the "IF" of the license plate.
Take for example, City of Brownsville commissioner Rose Gowen's so-called "Active Plan."
At its core, the Active Plan theory is that it can leverage the community’s commitment to local economic development to tap into the allegedly rapidly expanding market for “active tourism” to support job creation and small business activity and encourage tourist spending that injects money into local economies.
According to its proponents, the project will have an enormous economic impact on this highly impoverished but natural-resource-rich area for tourism, job creation and business development—injecting critical small-business investment and generating new tourism revenues along the project route.But there are a lot of IFs in this plan.
According to Gowen et. al., The Active Plan "is expected to generate upwards of $40 million in tourist spending for the region in the 10-year period following completion—and the construction phase for the six catalyst projects are expected to generate an economic impact of $56 million"IF the boosters get the money from the public entities.
By 2017, the city had dedicated more $2,007,133 to hike and bike projects when it issues transportation-related Certificates of Obligation under an ordinance passed in 2012. The latest was the COs issued in 2018 with the 10 percent cut of the total of the CO issue dealing with streets and transportation going to hike and bike trails.
The total construction cost for the six high-priority catalyst projects, including 75 miles of multiuse trails, paddling trails, and bicycle routes was estimated at $36.4 million to build it IF locals cough over the dough. So far, they have.
The projects are anticipated to generate $14 million in labor income and $5.3 million in local, state and federal taxes, and have an economic impact of $56 millionIF the theory is true. Each dollar invested in trail construction will be offset by the economic impact of construction alone, yielding $1.53 in economic activity within Cameron County IF everything goes right.
It is estimated that the IF trail construction portion of this project starts it will lead to 453 Cameron County jobs (and $14.3 million in labor income). In the 10th year after the trail network opening, it is estimated that IF non-local visitors come it will create 554 Cameron County jobs (and $16.8 million in labor income).
In the first 10 years, IF out-of-town visitors associated with the catalyst projects come, they are projected to spend nearly $367 million in Cameron County. By the 10th year following construction of the six catalyst projects - IF they are paid for by the public - it is estimated that non-local visitors will spend $39.6 million in Cameron County, generate $17 million in labor income, have a total annual economic impact of $57 million and provide more than $9 million in local, state and federal taxes.
So many IFs and so little to show going into eight years of funding these projects. Where are the millions and active tourists Rose?
The projects are anticipated to generate $14 million in labor income and $5.3 million in local, state and federal taxes, and have an economic impact of $56 millionIF the theory is true. Each dollar invested in trail construction will be offset by the economic impact of construction alone, yielding $1.53 in economic activity within Cameron County IF everything goes right.
It is estimated that the IF trail construction portion of this project starts it will lead to 453 Cameron County jobs (and $14.3 million in labor income). In the 10th year after the trail network opening, it is estimated that IF non-local visitors come it will create 554 Cameron County jobs (and $16.8 million in labor income).
In the first 10 years, IF out-of-town visitors associated with the catalyst projects come, they are projected to spend nearly $367 million in Cameron County. By the 10th year following construction of the six catalyst projects - IF they are paid for by the public - it is estimated that non-local visitors will spend $39.6 million in Cameron County, generate $17 million in labor income, have a total annual economic impact of $57 million and provide more than $9 million in local, state and federal taxes.
So many IFs and so little to show going into eight years of funding these projects. Where are the millions and active tourists Rose?
Gowen is not the only one whose projects will come to fruition IF everything goes right.
A recent forum has predicted a high demand of workers at the Port of Brownsville. According to a recent workforce summit at the Port of Brownsville, approximately 9,000 jobs or more are expected in the Brownsville area with the omnipresent IFs associated with such rosy scenarios.
Pat Hobbs with Workforce Solutions Cameron said this about the current and upcoming employment landscape in the region. “I would say it’s a high demand. We’re hurting for a skilled trades workforce.”
The port is projecting growth IF projects come to fruition and IF there are workers to fill the demand. and is now in the process of looking for workers to fill new jobs. Most positions said have an emphasis in skilled labor and come as a result of upcoming projects such as ship building IF the enterprise takes off and IF a major dredging project is done and - IF approved - the arrival of the LNG facilities.
“We’re in the planning stages now. Working with the colleges in the area to build training programs to satisfy their workforce needs, ” said Hobbs.
Recently the U.S. Navy announced that Brownsville is currently considered to be an option for dismantling a historic carrier IF workers can be found to dismantle a nuclear carrier. Hobbs says most of the upcoming employment activity is at the port IF .
One of the largest prospective sites for employment is the Rio Grande LNG project, IF it goes through and all the permits are granted. Plans to begin construction as early as 2020, IF....
Matt Schatzman, NextDecade LLC, “(IF and)When this project starts construction, we’ll have created 6,000 direct jobs during construction. (And IF it does happen) after we’re finished nearly 5,000 permanent jobs, a majority which is of which are in Cameron County. I think people that know that are very supportive of the project."
And of course, the biggest IF project is the SpaceX commercial vertical launch station which was supposed to provide up to 500 good-paying $75,000 jobs IF the first launch was in 2013. We're in 2019 today with no launches in sight yet. No launches, no jobs, but $35 million tax abatements and incentives for SpaceX.But now it's going to be a "Hopper" test site with an unknown number of technical jobs that might increase IF billionaire Elon Musk gets to send people to Mars from Boca Chica Beach IF...
And don't get us going on the $500 million Tensaka plant which will be built IF...
As we have learned, the story about Paul being dead was a hoax, but we still plunked down out bucks to play the records backwards and get some clue. The examples above indicate that the public is plunking its bucks because we have been warned that the good jobs will not materialize IF we don't...