If normal statistical rules apply, except perhaps in the Texas U.S. Senate race which is neck to neck, most of the races in local government and the Brownsville Independent School District have already been decided by the early Blue Wave Vote.
That raises the question of whether the race for Cameron County Judge between incumbent Eddie Treviño and Republican Carlos Cascos will be determined by the surge of Betomania Democratic votes exciting the Democratic base. O'Rourke was in Brownsville Thursday to a standing-room only crowd at the Ringgold Park Pavilion. (That's Cascos in the graphic with former county commissioner Dan Sanchez, a Democrat of sizable political proportions).
Will his customary 20 percent Democratic crossover vote be able to overcome the additional estimated 30,000 votes expected this year. After all, there were 10,000 more votes cast in early voting this year than four years ago during midterms. And that's not counting election day, yet. For Cascos, that's the $64,000 question.
Historically, the early vote has hovered above 50 percent, but closer to 60 or more.
The BISD race, which is nonpartisan, has nonetheless been affected by the surge in local voting. That election has drawn 19,650 early votes. The reason there goes beyond the Betomania surge, but can also be ascribed to the large number of candidates (12) vying for three seats.
In 2016, a presidential year, 35,693 voters cast ballots in the BISD race. This mid-term year could approach 30,000. In the Position 1 race, with five candidates vying for a majority vote, a candidate that draws a little over 6,000 could well take it.
Compared to the 2014 midterm elections, this year has more than doubled the early vote. In 2014, there were 40,439 votes cast in Cameron County, and 20,733 were cast early.
At the end of the 11-day voting period ending Friday, the number of early votes was 50,916, 10,477 than the 40,439 total vote (early and election day) cast in 2014. If we add in another 25,000, on election day on Tuesday, it will approach 76,000 total votes this year.
Now, that doesn't approach the November 2016 presidential-year total of 93,716 votes cast in this county then. That year, 61,481 votes were cast early, about 57.6 percent.
Nonetheless, every candidate in these races knows that every vote – specially in the BISD race – is crucial. They've put out their name to serve, and now it's up to us to determine who will. Don't take that right in vain.